Although global population exploded toward the end of the 20th century, a global food crisis was avoided because food production grew even more rapidly. However, loss of arable land to salination caused by ineffective irrigation practices, desertification, and urbanization have led to concern as to whether future food production will be able to keep up with population growth. Lester Brown, director of the Earth Policy Institute in the United States, has been bringing attention to this issue for years.

In his recent work, "Outgrowing the Earth" (2004), he points out the difficulties of ensuring a safe food supply for the future and that, given China's demand, global grain reserves had fallen to fifty-seven days by 2004 -thirteen days less than the internationally accepted standard of safety. He also makes note of the destructive effect of recent intensive farming and irrigation on soils, as well as the potential obstruction of crop growth caused by global warming.^[1]

The dominant view among scientists interviewed for this report is that the main problem is not with the actual amount of food available, but rather its distribution. However, as the production of meat and dairy products increases, the overall efficiency of food production is decreasing. If everyone in the world were to adopt an American style diet, food supply would be insufficient, but with the choice of appropriate lifestyles and diets, there would not be a major global food supply crisis.

The Japanese diet could, in some respects, serve as a model for a balanced diet that is both healthy and nutritious, but since changes in diet are highly dependent on culture and habits, it is unlikely that the Japanese model as such will be adopted widely.

Are the dire predictions often made by experts like Lester Brown and environmentalists simply doomsday prophecies, or is there a real possibility of a large-scale food crisis in the future? To answer this, we look first at the current state of food production and consumption.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global grain production has grown from about one billion tons in 1960, to around two billion in 2000, owing to both an increase in cultivated land, as well as increased output per unit of land. After peaking in 1980, however, the total area of cultivated land has begun to decline and has remained stagnant since the end of the 1990s, slowing the rate of grain production and causing concern over future production capacity.

Figure 1: World Population and Arable and Cultivated Land Surface Area
Source' compiled from data in "World Prospects The 2002 Revision", FAOSTAT ^[2]

Per capita grain production reached a peak in 1985 at 377kg, falling to 329kg by 2003. The difference in grain producing regions is also evident when looking at Africa, which peaked as early as 1967 at 189kg per person and fell to 150kg by 2003.

By the FAO's estimate, based on population growth and changing eating habits, the world will require several times the current food productivity by the year 2050. Africa will require over five times as much, and the world as a whole will require more than twice as much food as today.

Table 1: FAO Food Demand Forecast (2050 /1995 Comparison)
Source'Food Requirements and Population Growth ^[3]

Global fish production (including both sea catch and fish farming) has increased from about 20 million tons in 1950 to 130 million tons in 2000. Per capita consumption has remained largely unchanged in developed countries but is increasing rapidly in the rest of the world. While production is still expected to rise, the ocean has limits and sea catch peaked at 96 million tons in 2000, falling to 90 million tons by 2003^[4]. In addition, 16% of the world's main fisheries are over-fished and it is thought that another 44% have almost been fished to their limit. Even with large vessels and intensive fishing practices, replenishing of the fish stocks adequate to meet demand is not expected.^[5]

While a rise in fish catch cannot be expected, farmed fish production (aquaculture) is increasing globally from just under 20 million tons in 1993 to 42 million tons in 2003, with exceptionally large growth in China. It is commonly thought that the rising demand from population growth must be met with farmed fish. Depending on the type of fish, this will still require large amounts of other resources to be used as feed, possibly having an overall negative impact on conservation efforts and exacerbating the impending food crisis. There are also issues with loss of ecosystems, such as mangroves that are being destroyed for shrimp farming. If we are to rely on farmed fish to provide a stable food supply, we must not only increase short-term production, but also ensure that sustainable methods of farming are implemented.

Meat for human consumption has more than tripled from 71 million tons in 1961, to 237 million tons in 2001, far surpassing population growth rates. Per capita consumption increased 12% in developed countries between 1973 and 1997 (from 67kg to 75kg), and consumption in developing countries grew 127%, from 11kg per person per year, to 25kg. Despite this, there is still a great divide between developed and developing countries in terms of meat consumption (beef, pork, lamb, and chicken).

Meat production requires large amounts of grain to be used as feed for the animals. The production of 1kg of beef requires 11kg of grain (using corn as the measure), and one kilogram of pork or chicken requires 7kg and 4kg of grain respectively.^[9]

Even as meat production increases, consumer preference for grain-fed meat is also increasing, leading to a steady rise in the use of grain as domesticated animal feed. It is estimated that the ratio of grain production used for livestock feed has risen from 32% of total grain production in 1961 to 46% in 2001.

A stable fresh water supply is the basis for all human activity and critical for a stable food supply, but only a small portion of water on earth is usable fresh water. Of the roughly 1.4 billion km³ of water on earth, 97.5% is salt-water and the remaining 2.5% is fresh water. Of the fresh water, however, 70% is currently fixed in glaciers or permanent ice, with only 0.3% in lakes and rivers.

Global water usage showed a definite increase in the last half of the 20th century and now, at the start of the 21st century, humans use approximately 4,000 km³ of water each year. The vast majority of that, roughly 70%, is used for crop irrigation, 20% is used for industrial purposes, and the remaining 10% is for household use.^{[2] [10]}

Figure 2: Future Outlook of Global Water Usage
Source' Endangered Global Water Supply and Food Production ^[11]

The greatest concern now is not that there will be a sudden large scale water shortage, but that the demand for fresh water will continue to grow, causing an increase in the number of countries and regions facing "water stress" and constant water scarcity. According to UNEP's definition, an area is experiencing water stress when annual water supplies drop below 1,700 m3 per person. When annual water supplies drop below 1,000 m3 per person, the population faces water scarcity.

Global population tripled in the 20th century, but water usage increased by a factor of six. Assuming that the world population increases from six to eight billion by 2025, there is growing concern that four billion people - or as much as 50% of world population in 2025) globally may face water stress. Under particular stress are key regions in China, India, the Middle East, Europe, Australia, and North America, including the western part of the United States. (Figure 3)

Figure 3: 2025 World "Water Stress" Status-quo Scenario
Source'World Water Council documents “World Water and Food Production in Crisis” ^[11]

A key factor contributing to the increase in food production of the last half of the 20th century was a marked increase in irrigation. Worldwide, total irrigated land surface increased five times from 50 million hectares in 1950, to 250 million hectares in 1998. According to the FAO, irrigation is expected to continue increasing, about 70% of the projection increase expected over the next three decades, illustrating how intimately the growth of future food production is tied to a stable water supply.

In many countries, irrigation is causing the overdrawing of groundwater resulting in falling water tables that, as Lester Brown and other experts point out, will eventually affect agricultural productivity.

• In a continuing study of the global water situation, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) has found that underground water levels in China's northern Fuyang province have fallen between eight and fifty meters in the past thirty years.^[14]
• According to the World Bank, the water tables of Yemen, in the Middle East, are falling faster than anywhere else in the world and, by 2010, groundwater supply there will have dried up almost entirely.
• Even in the United States, there are large areas of water in danger of drying up. In California, for example, the water table has dropped by as much as seventy meters in some areas due to over-use.^[15]

Water resource management is not only an issue of supply shortages or of flood control. Access to clean drinking water is also a major concern and is considered by the UN to be “a basic human right.”

According to the WHO (World Health Organization), there are approximately 1.1 billion people globally who do not have access to safe drinking water. About 40% of the world's people (2.4 billion), the majority of whom live in Africa and Asia, do not have access to clean water to meet their daily needs. 40% of Africa's population does not have access to safe drinking water, and over 50% of Asia's population is currently without enough clean water to meet their basic daily lifestyle requirements. Between 1990 and 2000, 800 million people gained access to safe drinking water, and 750 million people gained access to clean water for other daily use. With the current population growth, however, the overall problem is only slightly improving,^[16] and according to the WHO, five million people die each year from lack of clean water - the majority of whom are children.

Peter H. Gleick, a well-known water expert and editor of The World's Water 2004-05, maintains that the biggest failure of global economic and social development has been our inability to even supply clean water to all citizens of the world.^[17]

It is likely that modern consumer lifestyles will spread in the beginning of the 21st century and, along with it, meat consumption will rise requiring large additional amounts of grain. Likewise, water usage will grow raising the probability of increasing water stress throughout the world. There is a tremendous need to ensure enough clean water, healthy soil, and a stable increase in agricultural production.

Even if lifestyle changes were initiated today, there is little or no argument over the need for increased global food production over the next few decades, but there is some disagreement between scientists regarding the feasibility of such an increase. Some say that we have already run out of room for expansion. This situation highlights the need for the development of sustainable agricultural ecosystems capable of providing long-term food production.

1) A New Green Revolution?

The need for a second “green revolution“, similar to what was experienced in Asia and other developing areas in 1960-1970, is often cited with regards to increasing productivity in Africa. With this in mind, the FAO held the “Special Event on Green Revolution in Africa” in May 2005, where experts focused on the difficulties of agriculture over the past few decades and discussed the pressing necessity for another green revolution to be realized.^[18]

The result of the Green Revolution starting in the 1960s in Asia was an annual increase in grain harvests from 1 ton per hectare in 1950, to 2.8 tons per hectare in 1993. The main driving force behind this increase was the spread of irrigation, adoption of High Yield Variety crops (HYV), and large applications of synthetic fertilizers. In fact, the amount of fertilizer use in developing countries grew from 6.5kg per hectare in the sixties, to 82.1kg per hectare in 1990 - almost a fifteen-fold increase.^[12]

There are those who believe that we can greatly increase food production by increasing yield in Africa, but there are also skeptics. Some argue that the green revolution in Asia was not truly sustainable, while others point out that Africa lacks the fundamental prerequisites for another green revolution as soil is being depleted, and both the water and energy supplies lack the stability and supply capacity required for intensive agriculture.

One of those doubtful about the possibility for a second green revolution is Indian biologist Vandana Shiva who has spent many years studying agriculture in developing nations, primarily India. Looking at India's Punjab State she comments that, “The Green Revolution has been a failure. It has led to reduced genetic diversity, increased vulnerability to pests, soil erosion, water shortages, reduced soil fertility, micronutrient deficiencies, soil contamination, reduced availability of nutritious food crops for the local population, the displacement of vast numbers of small farmers from their land, rural impoverishment and increased tensions and conflicts.”^[19]

The Future of Farming - Biotech, Organic, or Modified Modern Farming?

As of 2004, there were 81 million hectares of land producing genetically modified crops globally, with the United States leading the world. (Figure 4)

Figure 4: Global Status of Transgenic (Genetically Modified) Crops
Source: ISAAA Report ^[20]

Despite the widespread use of genetically modified crops, their safety and effects on the ecosystem have not been sufficiently studied. Dale et al. explain the possible risks associated with GM crops.21 In addition, GM crops face deep-rooted mistrust due, in part, to recent incidents such as developers of GM varieties refusing to eat their own products. Given the high costs of producing GM crops^[21] they are at present limited to a small target group (limited market size) and thus are a good candidate for further scientific study.

Based on the above-mentioned issues and concerns, transgenic crops are not generally accepted by society as an extension of traditional breeding technologies. The majority of Japanese scientists interviewed for this report were of the opinion that genetically modified crops will not provide an easy solution to future food supply insufficiencies.

One European scientist interviewed for this report drew attention to the issue of differing farming methodologies and even ideologies:

“There are currently two approaches to agriculture: 1) Biotechnology, which is focusing on the merits of selective breeding and current genetic modifications, and 2) Agro-ecology which focuses more on the benefits of natural agricultural methods. Achieving sustainable agriculture will require the cooperation between the two. I personally tend to emphasize the agro-ecology approach which views the ecosystem as a whole, but I don't mean to deny the possibilities of genetic modification. Unless we combine all the approaches in a healthy way, meeting future food demand will be difficult.

Sustainability cannot succeed without a long-term vision and sustainable agriculture cannot be achieved with temporary technological fixes. The biggest problem is the lack of understanding by the biotechnologists of the ecosystem as a whole. There is a tendency for experts in molecular biology not to consider the ecosystem in its entirety. Biotechnology cannot be safely used without understanding that introducing a genetically modified organism into a system will change that system.”^[22]

1. Brown L.R. Outgrowing the Earth. (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2004)
2. Food and Agriculture Organization. Food requirements and population growth (FAO: 1996)
3. Delgado, C. L. et al. Outlook for Fish to 2020. (IFPRI: 2003). http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr15.pdf (accessed November, 2005)
4. Brown, L.R. Eco-Economy Update. Earth Policy Institute
5. Food and Agriculture Organization. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2002 (FAO: 2002)
6. K. Fukuoka, Chikyuu kankyou detabukku 2004-2005 [World Environmental Data Book 2004-2005], World Watch Japan,2004
7. Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries of Japan. http://www.kanbou.maff.go.jp/www/anpo/data5-4.htm (accessed November, 2005)
8. International Food Policy Research Institute. Global Water Outlook to 2025 (IFPRI: 2002)
9. Kiken ni chokumen suru sekai no mizu to syokuryou seisa n [World Water and Food Production Facing Crisis], Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries of Japan Website http://www.maff.go.jp/water/siryo.pdf (accessed November, 2005)
10. Ooka, Keiji, "Shyokuryou to kankyou" [Food Amount and the Environment], (Iwanami, 2004)
11. FAO Land and Water Development Division
12. Groundwater depletion: the hidden threat to food security? IWMI. http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Press/brief2.htm (accessed November, 2005)
14. USDA. Natural Resource Conservation Service
15. World Health ORganization. Global Water Supply and Sanitation Assessment 2000. (WHO. 2000)
16. Glieick, P. The World's Water 2004-2005. (Washington, DC: Island Press 2004)
17. FAO Committee on World Food Security. Special Event on Green Revolution in Africa, Background Document (FAO: 2005)
18. Shiva, V. "The Violence of the Green Revolution: Ecological Degradation and Political Conflict." The Ecologist, 1991, 21(2) 57-60
19. ISAAA Brief, Global Status of Commercialized Transgenic Crops (ISAAA: 2003)
20. Dale, P.J., Clarke, B. EMG Fontes; Potential for the environmental impact of transgenic crops. Nature Biotechnology, 20. 2002, 567-574
21. Peter Edwards, Interview. August 25, 2005