The social debate regarding mineral resource depletion is nothing new - scientists have been arguing whether or not we are heading toward depletion of key resources for many decades. Invariably, the discussion seems to polarize into the "optimists" versus the "pessimists," but in this report we have attempted to overcome this simple dichotomy. We will take a look at resource inputs and material footprints of nations, at methods for evaluating depletion, as well as discuss waste and the need for a recycle-based industrial society.

In 1997, The World Resources Institute (WRI) published Resource Flows in collaboration with Japanese and European research teams, followed by The Weight of Nations in 2000. According to these reports, resource efficiency per unit of economic output has been on the rise since the end of the 20th century, but there is no evidence that overall resource consumption or waste generation is declining^[1]. On the contrary, the reports indicate a trend toward increased resource consumption as well as material outflows into the environment.

According to a survey measuring Total Material Requirement (TMR) in the 1997 report, Japan's TMR was 45 tons per person per year while Germany, Holland and the United States each had a TMR of around 80 tons^[2]. TMR includes both direct resource inputs, such as materials used in products and infrastructure and so-called “hidden resource flows”, such as the amount of earth displaced for construction, and energy used for industrial production.

Below are some of the results of the 2000 report and Japan's study of global material flows.

1) Characteristics of Waste Generation
One-half to three-fourths of all resource input required for economic activity in industrial society is released into the environment as waste within a given year. However, this figure is so high only because the intake of oxygen required for combustion is included as an input when calculating CO2 emissions. In Japan's case, for example, over half of the input resources are not wasted, but end up as resource stock in the form of infrastructure and buildings.

2) The Volume of Hidden flows ^[1]
The volume of hidden resource flows (see TMR above) is large and has, until now, been almost completely neglected in national resource accounting. If we take out the hidden flows, the annual per-capita emissions (waste material, scrap, emissions) for Japan are 11 tons/year, and 25 tons/year for the United States. When hidden flows are included, these figures rise to 21 tons/year for Japan and 86 tons/year for the United States. The pattern of hidden flows varies depending on the country, but there is a tendency for major parts of the flow to concentrate in developing nations due to the fact that mining activities today occur mainly in these countries. Therefore, it is important to control and limit hidden resource flows not only to protect the environment in industrialized countries, but as much to prevent serious environmental degradation in developing countries.^[1]

3) The Generation and Movement of Waste.^[3]

The actual definition of “waste” differs widely between countries. This, combined with the fact that many countries do not have reliable statistics on waste, makes it very difficult get an accurate view of how much waste is generated in the world as a whole. Tanaka (2001)^[15] looked at the relationship between GDP and waste to estimate that long-term global house-hold waste generation will rise from 1.5 billion tons in 2000 to 2.7 billion tons in 2050, with Asia's waste output accounting for about half of the latter figure. The annual generation of industrial waste is expected to increase from 9.1 billion tons to 16.2 billion tons, and toxic wastes from 530 million tons to 940 million tons. Finding ways to limit and handle such expanding waste flows will be a major undertaking in the building of a sustainable society.

In the Stone Age, humanity mainly used tools and utensils made from earth and stone, but even then copper and gold were being produced. Later, in the copper and bronze age, tin, zinc, arsenic, lead, and antimony were used in the making of tools for agriculture and domestication of animals. Together with more recently discovered metals, and other mineral resources including fossil fuels, these resources have become indispensable to the survival of humanity and the development of human civilization. However, as civilization developed, the combination of human population growth and the modernization of countries around the world has led to ever larger global resource consumption. Some experts expect that this exponential growth of resource consumption in human societies will lead to the depletion of key resources in the near future, making it increasingly difficult for future generations to enjoy the benefits of Earth's natural capital. Certain rare metals, in particular, are unevenly distributed on the globe, and the continued increase in their consumption may lead to economic friction or even strife and war between the countries where mining takes place.

On the other hand, there are many experts that believe that there are still plenty of resources available for consumption without threatening our present lifestyle. One optimistic view holds that even if some current resources run out, future technological advances will enable the development of alternative materials that will make it possible to sustain our current lifestyle without a need for population control or the danger of descending into chaos.

In this section, we cover some of the key arguments concerning resource depletion. Are we facing the danger of imminent resource depletion? What does the term itself mean and how might we measure and evaluate the time span remaining until depletion?

What is Resource Depletion?

For practical purposes, “resource depletion” does not mean that mineral resources will be completely “used up”. Instead, the term refers to a situation where:

1. the amount of resources available to future generations is considerably reduced;
2. recovering those resources becomes difficult due to a need for increased energy input; and
3. it becomes difficult to maintain a high quality of life, currently dependent on those resources.

More specifically, the below phenomena will occur with resource scarcity and should be taken as the practical definition of resource depletion:

• the steep rise in the price of a resource;
• the increase in environmental damage caused by the extraction of a resource; and
• the loss of the economic benefit (feasibility) of using the resource.

The Possibility of Resource Depletion

The lifespan of a resource (proven reserves divided by annual consumption) changes with the discovery of new materials and technological developments. While it is possible to calculate a static (or current) figure for the lifespan of a resource, one cannot argue based on this alone, that a resource will run out or not. We can, however, discuss the degree of depletion by looking at the difference between current consumption and the estimated absolute volume of the resource in question.^[5]

The difference between the estimated total volume of a resource found in the earth's crust and cumulative resource consumption is vast. As indicated in Figure 1, the resource base itself is enormous and, even if consumption increases as lifestyles around the world become more prosperous, the physical depletion of most resources within a short time is unlikely. This in turn means that using existing resource amounts to explain resource depletion is basically meaningless. The real problem is that out of the total resource base, the amount of reserves that can be economically mined is rather small.

Figure 1: Existing Resources and Extractable Resources
Source: Resource Production Evaluation Based on Total Material Requirement (TMR) ^[5]

It is possible that technological advances will allow more iron and lead resources to be extracted but, if this does not happen, economic restrictions will make these resources inaccessible.

From the figure above, we can conclude the following:

1. The absolute depletion of resources is not a major concern.
2. The quality of some resources is declining. If this decline causes their development to become economically unfeasible, this economic depletion is the equivalent of physical depletion.
3. Depletion of a resource depends on the speed of consumption, changes in resource quality, usage patterns, collection and recycling efforts.
4. Rare metals are critical not only because of their rarity, but because they are broadly used in industrial society and their supply base is both environmentally, and often politically, fragile. The key question is whether a stable, efficient supply is possible, thus supporting economic activity. Considering recent trends in consumption and increased demand from the information technology industries and the difficulty of substitution, preparing for the depletion of some rare metals such as platinum, rare elements, and indium, is becoming an issue of high importance.

Resource conservation and the critical issue of waste management and treatment in industrial society are not to be seen as separate issues. Rather, dealing with “resources” and “waste” from the viewpoint of how to promote the continuous recycling of materials used in society, and technological development as well as key policies be geared to promote such recycling is imperative to prevent the depletion of key resources and make the transition to a recycle-based society.

Waste and recycling cannot be considered in isolation from numerous closely related local and national economic and social conditions. With few natural resources or available space for landfills, Japan has been especially active with recycling, and has recently promoted the 3Rs (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle) internationally. At the G8 Summit in June of 2004, Japan proposed the “3R Initiative” which obtained the approval of G8 leaders, leading up to the release of Science and Technology for Sustainable Development: ‘3R’ Action Plan and Progress on Implementation. This initiative aims to promote five main activities.^[6]

1. Reduce waste, Reuse and Recycle resources and products to the extent economically feasible;
2. Reduce barriers to the international flow of goods and materials for recycling and remanufacturing, recycled and remanufactured products, and cleaner, more efficient technologies, consistent with existing environmental and trade obligations and frameworks;
3. Encourage cooperation among various stakeholders (central governments, local governments, the private sector, NGOs and communities), including voluntary and market-based activities;
4. Promote science and technology suitable for 3Rs; and
5. Cooperate with developing countries in such areas as capacity building, raising public awareness, human resource development and implementation of recycling projects.

Japan is already a leader when it comes to implementing 3R related activities in the electronics and automobile sector. In April 2001, the “Home Electronics Recycling law” went into effect, and the electronics industry is now actively collecting used products such as air-conditioners, CRT televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, and computers. Refrigerant fluorocarbons are collected by the manufacturer and sorted, old products are dismantled, and parts are reused and recycled or returned to the manufacturer. Over ten million devices have been recycled since the law went into effect, making this the first resource loop system of its kind in the world.

Despite Japan's movement toward a closed loop, recycle-based society, the amount of industrial waste has remained at around 400 million tons per year for the last ten years. Likewise, non-industrial waste (household waste) statistics have shown no improvement. Annually, 410 kg of non-industrial waste is generated per person adding up to a total of some 50 million tons per year, or 1.1 kg per person every day.

Figure 2: Total and Daily Per Capita Non-Industrial Waste Disposal
Source: Japan Ministry of the Environment 2004 Environmental White Pages

However, one result of legislation promoting a closed loop society and industry's zero emissions activities, has been that the actual amount of waste to landfills has been greatly reduced since 1990, and Japan has achieved the highest level of resource productivity of all developed nations.

Figure 3: Final Landfill Waste in Japan
Source: Japan Ministry of Environment

Waste generated from toxic chemicals that modern society has grown to depend on is a major obstacle in the achievement of a closed loop society. Establishing a perfect closed loop is virtually impossible and part of the chemicals used will eventually make their way into the environment where they accumulate and affect human and ecosystem health. Below is a brief overview of the current state of, and plans for, toxic chemical handling.^{[7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]}

The number of chemicals (including inorganic compound substances) registered at the United States' Chemical Abstract Service as of September, 2005 was 26.75 million. This number grows by several million each year, with about one hundred thousand of these used and sold commercially.

The number of petrochemicals used for production in Japan has increased dramatically since the 1960s, as have numerous unintended byproducts formed by impurities in the chemicals, combustion and incineration, chlorination of drinking water, and natural degradation. Reliable information regarding toxicity, carcinogenic effects, allergenic effects, reproductive problems, and the effect on aquatic organisms is only available for a few hundred of these. What's more, we only have reliable information about a few thousand -a small percentage of the chemicals sold on the market today.

This means that in just forty to fifty years, a brief moment in human history, we have produced and begun to use massive volumes of synthetic chemicals. We live in a world unlike any that has been experienced before - one in which society is awash in potentially toxic chemical substances.

Figure 4: Production of Petrochemical Materials in Japan
Source: Complied from Chemical Industry Yearbook(The Chemical Daily) ^[16]

We live in a world where accidents have leaked large amounts of toxins into the environment, causing pollution and ecological devastation as seen in Seveso, Italy and Bhopal, India. Marine mammals and other animals in the wild suffer from increasing concentrations of PCB, dioxins, DDT and other Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs). Ozone depletion and global climate change have resulted from the emission of freons and halon. People suffer from lead, cadmium, and arsenic poisoning. Mercury has led to Minamata disease, and asbestos and benzene have been linked to cancer. Chemicals used in household products cause Multiple Chemical Sensitivity Syndrome (MCS), and photochemical fog and oxidants from volatile organic matter are at the root of Sick Building Syndrome, affecting people in their home, work, and school.

In addition to managing synthetic chemicals for our own health, the need to keep in mind the possible effects on future generations, wildlife, and biodiversity calls for a prevention-based system that proactively manages chemicals and, as prescribed in the 1992 Rio Summit, does so in an open and economically sound manner, adequately communicating the risk of newly developed chemical technologies.

The vast resource flows seen in industrial society are obviously the result of the products we consume and structures we build. Sustainable resource use cannot be made a reality without first looking at our consumption habits. The first half of the 21st century will inevitably be marked by increased resource consumption and waste generation as many emerging and developing countries continue on a path of economic and social development, joining the already high-consumption industrial countries. It is a pressing task for us to use all technological as well as political tools available to promote a closed loop society.

Such a closed loop society cannot happen within just one country, rather, it requires a broad international effort. We cannot simply export our waste to other countries as "second hand goods" without first considering the international issues involved. We must take a global view, creating a sustainable global system to manage resource flows that takes into account the types and circulation of materials, the scale of resource flows, regional characteristics and difficulties, supply and demand issues, and the availability of recycling and treatment technologies.

1. Matthews, E.C. et al. The Weight of Nations, Material Outflows from Industrial Economics, (Washington DC: World Resources Institute, 2000)
2. Adrianse, A. et al. Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies. (Washington DC: World Resources Institute, 1997)
3. United Nations Development Project. Global Trends in Generation and Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Other Waste, Analysis of the data provided by Parties to the Secreatariat of the Basel Convention, Prepared by Kees Wielenga for the Secretariat of the Basel Convention, Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal, Basel Convention series No. 02/14 (UNEP. 2002)
4. T. Masaru. Sekai, ajis, soshite, nihonn no kokeihaikibutukanri [Solid Waste Management of The World, Asia, and Japan], Third meeting of Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy on Sound Material-Cycle Society Special Survey Group (2001)
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6. Japan Ministry of the Environment. Jyunnkannkeisyakaihakushyo heisei 17nendoban jyunkankeisyakaikouzou ni muketa gomi no 3R no suishinn [Sound Material-Cycle Society White Pages, 2004: Moving Toward the Creation of a Sound Material-Cycle Society by Promoting the 3R] (Tokyo, 2004)
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8. Totaruseifutei wo kangaeta kagakubushitu no kankyou risuku taisaku [Environmental Risk Management of Chemicals Based on Total Safety], in: Shigenkankyoutaisaku, Vol.34, 1998, p.6-11
9. Yuugaikagakubushitukanri no kongo [The Future of Toxic Chemical Management], in: Kemikaru Enjyaniaringu Vol2, 2002, p.89-93
10. Morishita, et al. Kagakubushitukanri no kokuseitekidoukou [Chemical Management Political Movements], in: Kagakbushitsu to Kankyou No.42, 2000
11. T. Shigeoka, Kagakubushitukanri no Kokusaikoudou to kongo [International Movements and Future of Chemical Management], in: Kagakbushitsu to Kankyou No.67,2000,pp.17-19
12. O. Nakasugi, Kagakubishitu no Risukukanri no Koudoka to Kouritsuka [Advancement and Increasing Efficiency of Chemical Risk Management], in: Kagakbushitsu to Kankyou No.70,2005
13. Ueno, et al., Zanryuseiyuukiosennbushitu (POPs) osen no jittai to kongo [Current State and Future of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)], in: Kagakbushitsu to Kankyou No.71, Ekokemisutoriikenkyuukai, 2005
14. K. Urano, Kagakubushitu no risuku komyunikesyon shyuhou gaido [Guide to Chemical Risk Communication], in: Gyousei , 2001
15. Kagakukougyounenkan [Chemical Industry Yearbook], The Chemical Daily